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North Pole: Not giving up on Dominick - search conducted in wrong area?
20:02 p.m. EST Apr 18, 2004
Published March 24, 04.
Helsingin Sanomat reported yesterday that the search for Dominick ended Friday by announcement from Cerpolex.
The paper reports: "The rescuers located the hat of Frédéric Chamard-Boudet... There have now been four separate attempts to locate Arduin... De Marliave (of Cerpolex) said that the entire search area, which is not very large, has been covered very carefully...Aurdin was not at the drop site to meet the first flight (resupply)."
To begin with, there have not been four separate attempts to locate Dominick. The first attempt was in connection to the pick up of Frederic and the third related with an airdrop to Bettina and Jean Gabriel. In fact there have been only two full searches for her.
Where did they search then? According to Cerpolex: "On March 11 the two helicopters went up to the zone where Dominick was calculated to be, a rectangle of 100 km of latitude (East-West) and about 20 km of longitude (North-South), without locating Dominick or her equipment."
Wait a minute - 20 km North?! March 11, Dom had been out for nearly a week. On the evening of March 5th she put up camp at 81°14’N-95°59’E on firm ice. Her speed was fast. Reported Cerpolex: "The last report (March 5) said that Dominick had traversed 8.5km in 2 hours and 30 minutes (that is a fairly constant speed for her)". So, she made the equivalent of 25 km per day? Yes, but this was still on land though, points out Cerpolex.
So, what did lay ahead?
Cerpolex reported that the area was not entirely open water: "After a few kilometers of "glace fixée" (fast - solid ice, fixed at the coast) was a zone of about 2-3 kilometers of open water with vast plates of ice. After that 50 kilometers of young ice (thickness of about 20-30cm) perfectly flat, without any open water; this is the ideal surface for expedition progress."
Yes, that's correct. This kind of ice easily allows a speed of 25 km per day for a supported, solo skier. If it was young ice, "ideal for expeditions", and she had a "normal speed of 8,5 km in 2,5 hours", she would have been over the thin ice in 20 hours. With these statements, Dominick would have crossed the area on March 7 or latest 8, then traveled with a speed of around 2 km/hour - or 15 km per day. Placing her, in fact, around 100 km North on the day the search for her was conducted within a triangle of 20 km longitude!
Impossible distance? Hardly. In 2000, Rune and Torry averaged half that in the same time frame and they were loaded with gear for a full crossing. In fact, the fastest expedition to the North Pole is one of two Swedes in 2001 - 42 days and unsupported. Today, Dominick has been out for 18 days and could well have covered almost a third way to the pole.
Which leads us to the second search:
The estimate places her at 81’48 on March 7. An average skiing distance of 7 NM or only 13 km daily (Bettina and JG have averaged 10+ km and solo's are often faster) would place her at 83’12 on the March 19 - when the search was maximized to 83’00.
We also stressed that the search should have stretched further East. To begin with, Dominick was dropped further East 81°10’N-96°03’E, than the other current expeditions 81°47’N-95°50’E. The Westerly drift normally moves expeditions to the West. This year however, both Ben Saunders and Wave Vidmar are at present more to the East than their starting point. They are both actually East of 97’. Dominick started out more East than Ben and Wave. Yet the search was West of 97’.
We consider East of 97 to be a more or just as likely position (and all expeditions are right now further East than for example Rune and Torry in their logs of the same time frame). This all points to an easterly drift, which was also confirmed by Wave March 8, - "Drifting quickly East and a touch North."
Now, let's have a look at the weather: March 5-8, the weather was good. In fact, the weather was fine for the 72 hours Dom had to cross the dangerous section (March 6-March 8). In addition, the ice there was 20-30 cm, according to Cerpolex. In comparison, in the old days in Arctic Scandinavia, 30 cm ice was considered fine to drive a car. Polar skiers often move over ice 3-4 cm thin ("2 pokes").
Last Friday we published a quick count placing Dom as far as 83.30 and towards East. In a phone call with us later that day, PolarCircle disagreed. They said that there was no way Dom could have gone that far, plus it was unlikely that she headed East. And then they aborted further search.
They also pointed to the dead communications technology. In 2002, two Australian skiers were "lost" for twelve days without any communication on the ice. Only today, Fiona Thornewill spoke of comm problems on her polar expeditions. As for this year, let's check Waves log: Mar 8, - "Some of the expeditions out here have been having Iridium phone trouble." Dominick's people reported trouble with her Iridium already March 3 and 4.
And the Argos? Dominick's Argos transmitted only five signals Friday and a few weak ones Saturday. To put things in perspective, the Argos typically transmits signals twice hourly at least. In Dom's case, the Argos simply malfunctioned from the start.
And finally "Aurdin was not at the drop site to meet the first flight (resupply)." But a drop point is always just an estimate. You calculate that you'll have a drop around a certain degree, but you don't sit around waiting for it. Drift, bad weather, ice conditions all make it impossible to fix an exact position for an air drop. Instead, you just speed as fast as you can, and the resupply finds you with your Argos position. When the two Australian skiers were "lost" for twelve days without any communication on the ice, they just continued skiing.
Cerpolex wrote: "Dominique pulled in her sled all the necessary equipment for her progression and survival; she brought food to last her 17 days and a kayak to cross open water". Well, at this point, we have not found a trace of any of that.
So what do have here? An area within N83’00 and E97’00, covered in one day of dedicated search, with a belief that Dom died already her first day of full travel. Yet the above facts and calculations point to a possible location farther North and East than the one searched on both occasions (check map).
In the end, a few things just doesn't make sense: If you fall in the water – you get up. If you can’t, your sled (and kayak) are still afloat. They should be visible. The Argos should still send out signals. A bear attack too would leave traces. How is it that Dominick – and all he gear – is mysteriously swallowed in an area where we even located Frederic's hat?
We might very well have a living, very fast girl waving at a heli who just can't see here because its covering, very carefully "the entire search area, which is not very large". The fact is, once again, that we have found nothing - nothing - to prove that Dominick is dead.
We strongly believe that the search should continue, and fast! It should cover the area suggested on the map – and now also beyond. And this time we should search for a living person - not a dead body. But time is running out, especially in terms of her fuel. Without it, she'll freeze to death. Dom left with 17 days worth of supplies, and has now been missing for 18 days.
Five expeditions set out for a North Pole expedition this year, all from the Russian side. Wave Vidmar to be the first American to ski solo and unsupported to the North Pole. Frédéric Chamard-Boudet to do the same for France. British Ben Saunders to attempt a first solo, unsupported crossing. Danish/French duo Bettina Aller and Jean Gabriel Leynaud ski to the pole with support and French/Finnish woman Dominick Arduin attempts the first solo, female North Pole trek with support.
A big open water lead just off the starting point posed the first immediate problem for this years expeditions. Two solo skiers, French/Finnish woman Dominick and Frenchman Frederic decided to ski/paddle across the huge, 55 km semi open water area, in an attempt for a clean North Pole expedition (which must start from land). The other teams opted for an air drop onto thick ice.
Frederic Chamard-Boudet, fell in the water and was rescued. He is treated for severe frostbite. Dominick is missing since March 5th.
Image ExplorersWeb.
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